?

Log in

entries friends calendar my info Previous Previous Next Next
Close race? - Y aconteció en aquellos días…
las aventuras de David Santiago del Bosque
tehuatzi
tehuatzi
Close race?
I never post on here anymore, but I do occasionally read my friends page... at some point, someone said a while back that the presidential race is only close when viewed through the lens of the media, who have staggering financial incentives to portray it as such (advertising dollars).

Looks like this is rather well supported by a group of CS and poli sci students at one of my almae matres, who put up this site forecasting the outcome of the presidential election based not on popular vote, but Bayesian estimators of Electoral College outcomes based on continuously updated state-by-state poll results.

You can select various political climate scenarios, from "Strong Democratic" to "Strong Republican," which artificially slants independent voters +/- 10% for either Obama or McCain.

At present, under the Neutral scenario, the model predicts a 1.00 probability that Obama would win, if the election were held today. Under the Strong Republican scenario, that probability drops to... 0.99.

EDIT: Going back through the archives shows that McCain did get a major post-convention bump, and was the predicted winner the week of 9/15 - 9/19. But the overall forecast history from 7/31 to today show Obama winning handily.
4 comments or Leave a comment
Comments
barnabashoward From: barnabashoward Date: October 2nd, 2008 04:13 pm (UTC) (Link)

facinating

That's something that I hadn't thought about before.
saralinda From: saralinda Date: October 2nd, 2008 07:21 pm (UTC) (Link)
You should post more! Come back to the dark side of LJ...
zelxyb From: zelxyb Date: October 2nd, 2008 07:36 pm (UTC) (Link)
Good ol' media. They could make it so that third parties were relevant if they wanted to...
slightlyjillian From: slightlyjillian Date: October 2nd, 2008 11:28 pm (UTC) (Link)
Curious. I'd like to think that I have some super ability to know this data intrinsically which is why I've been more or less uninterested? bored? indifferent? to this election. Maybe not. Heh.
4 comments or Leave a comment